Thom Rainer over at Church Answers, and formerly of Lifeway Research, has been checking the pulse of churches coming out of the COVID pandemic. Like a number of other "prognosticators and pollsters," he has been watching church attendance trends since long before the pandemic. I've been posting some of their findings and thinking about what they mean for Sunday School.

In my response below, I apply their findings and recommendations to thinking about our classrooms.

In his late September 2022 newsletter titled, Five Reasons Why Decreasing the Number of Worship Services Might Be the Best Move, Thom Rainer's own polling has confirmed what others have predicted and many have experienced:   

Post-Pandemic Worship Attendance is Down by 25%.

Further, Rainer and others are not characterizing this as "25% are slow to come back." They are seeing this as 25% are NOT coming back, Your own numbers may vary for a lot of reasons, but this trend is affecting churches of all denominations.

Among many suggestions in his article, Rainer suggests CONSOLIDATING the number of worship services because nobody feels energized by a half full room. We've all hear this "room science" many times over the years: "80% full" feels full, and any less feels like "where is everybody?" From personal experience as both a pastor and pew-sitter in a number of churches, I know that the 80% rule is generally true. "Where is everybody" is also certainly something every Sunday School teacher has heard kids express when attendance is down. I've even heard teachers say it out loud in front of their kids! But I think the real negative effect of "where is everybody" happens at home when the student complains that "nobody goes there" (least of all, their friends who have stopped coming to church).

The 80% effect can be especially detrimental if your classrooms were built for 1970's attendance and were already "too big" or poorly designed for the attendance you HAD before the pandemic and are experiencing now. So maybe now is REALLY a good time to take a closer look at our classrooms. Not so coincidentally, the Rotation Model has been doing this for a long time, but even Rotation Sunday Schools have experienced "the drop" and need to rethink how the size and configuration of their classrooms and program make kids and adults feel good about being there. (You can read and see more Rotation "workshop" ideas here, just keep in mind they weren't written with the "80% full" issue or post-pandemic attd in mind. Hence, the following suggestions.)

I've shared a lot of ideas for renewal elsewhere, but let's just focus on some PRACTICAL and immediate things any church can do NOW to get ahead of this "where is everybody" issue that will eat away at future attendance too.

Changes for Sunday School:

1. Consolidate your Sunday School. If you offer two times, consider just one. We say it a lot around here, but "less is more" certainly applies to scheduling -- especially if it helps kids feel the energy of a better-attended lesson, rather than subject them to poor attendance at two offerings.
   
   
2. Combine grade groups to create more of a "full feeling" in the classroom.
   
   
3. Work to renew and build new relationships between attenders whose friends have not returned.
   
   
4. Redesign your classrooms to feel "cozier" for smaller groups. This is something every "smaller" Sunday School should do right now.
   
   

• Remove unused furniture. Empty chairs don't encourage attendance. (See the article on the 80% rule linked below.)
  
  
• Fill empty classroom space by splitting up where in the classroom you do different things and adding things like a discussion area away from your art table. (Look at some photos and "workshop" design suggestions in our Rotation Model "Classroom Design and how to" forum.)

Read this fascinating article from the Alban Institute about the  “80% Capacity Rule” and "comfortable capacity and design rules." They apply to children too!

More about the 25% drop off...

25% is concerning not only because of the loss, but because it continues a two-decade downward trend in statistics. Rainer and others like Carey Nieuwhof, are telling us that, for a variety of reasons, many who left us before the pandemic and since the pandemic are simply not coming back, and that we must learn how to reach out to those who have (a) not left, and (b) have yet to come. And on that subject, those of us in Children's Ministry have a lot to offer!

Children's Ministry of-a-sort is exactly what many un-churched people are seeking:

• A safe place to help raise their kids.
• A place that will teach them to be unselfish, caring, and respectful.
• A place that will get them out of the house, help them make new friends.
• A place that will encourage them to be citizens of the world (a big issue among Millennials).
• A place that will encourage their creativity (another big issue among Millenials).
• A place parents can drop off their kids to get a little "me" time.
• And yes, even develop their sense of spirituality and faith (without the judgment and fear)

For a very long time, we've been marketing Sunday School as the place to "Grow faith" and "Get Bible knowledge." And yes, those things are central to our mission. But they are not the only thing Sunday School is good at or will appeal to today's parents. Like the disciples at Pentecost, we have to be open to some new languages if we're going to reach the people out on the street.

What many outside the church DO NOT WANT is for us to pressure, cajole, "convert," and otherwise make them or their children feel judged. Today's younger generation doesn't have a high opinion of the church, and we need to take that seriously as we design and carryout our children's ministries.

For more on what millennials want for their kids, read this article.

Read how judgemental Christianity repels today's younger generation (and what to do about it).

For a fascinating study on parents and their kids' spiritual and morality, read Barna's report, especially the part about "opportunity for churches."